This was published 2 years ago
Opinion
We mourn Shinzo Abe as a friend, but the world will miss his wisdom
Malcolm Turnbull
Former prime ministerShinzo Abe was sincere, authentic and warm. He was calm, considered and wise. Looking back I think of the delight he and Akie radiated when we sped across Sydney Harbour on the Admiral’s barge in January 2017, or the pride he had pointing out the landmarks of Tokyo from his helicopter in 2018. Shinzo loved to be on the move and I always sensed we shared the fun of doing or seeing something new.
Malcolm Turnbull with Shinzo Abe in Japan on January 18, 2018.
Our best joint project was hatched over dinner at our home in Sydney in January 2017. Trump was about to be inaugurated, and he had pledged to pull out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, a very ambitious trade deal promoted by Barack Obama. It included 12 nations in our region including the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada and Mexico. In trade terms it was the biggest show in town.
It was manifestly in our interest economically and from a strategic perspective, it had been the key element in Obama’s pivot to Asia – cementing the region’s commitment to free trade, open markets and the liberal economic order.
Shinzo had staked a huge amount of his own political capital in the deal; but had pitched it as opening up trade opportunities for Japan in the US. Now that Trump was out, how could he stick with it? Just about everyone thought the deal was dead.
Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull with Shinzo and Akie Abe in January 2017.
I, on the other hand, was determined to stick with it. Over dinner Shinzo was candid about his domestic political challenges in supporting a TPP without the US, and he worried that proceeding without the US may offend Trump.
He was facing threats of nuclear war from North Korea, missiles being fired across Japan and at the same time China was becoming more assertive in the region. He needed to keep the new US president on side.
Over that evening, we agreed we would proceed without the US. There was a lot of scepticism both in Australia and Japan that such a big deal could be concluded without the USA. But in what proved to be an historic Australia-Japan diplomatic partnership we won over each of the other countries in turn.
Or we thought we had. By November 2017, we were all in Da Nang, Vietnam for an APEC meeting. Pens were poised, the cameras were rolling to record the formal signing of the TPP-11 as it became known. But at the last minute, Canada pulled out. It was humiliating both for Shinzo and our Vietnamese hosts. But he was not angry, or resentful. Calmly we reassessed the situation and agreed that we should stay on track, if the TPP-11 became a TPP-10 or 9 we would not give up. He was clear eyed about both the economic and strategic benefits of the deal, and like me, determined to capture both.
Malcolm Turnbull with President Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe at the ASEAN summit in Manila, Philippines on November 13, 2017. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
And so finally in March 2018 the TPP-11 (by now called the CPTPP) was ratified. Canada returned and nobody else left and the deal is now in force. It could not have happened without Japan’s commitment, but I don’t believe it could have happened without a leader as determined and measured as Shinzo. It was so easy, so obvious, to just walk away. But thanks to Shinzo we achieved this deal despite a rising tide of protectionism and the fact that it is in force means that other nations like the United Kingdom, including hopefully the United States, will be able to join over time.
When Shinzo became PM for the second time in 2012 he had a clear view of what he wanted to achieve in the region – a free and open Indo-Pacific in which the rule of law prevailed and small nations were able to pursue their destinies without being bullied or coerced by larger ones.
The major threat to that appeared to be a rising, and potentially revisionist, China. So Shinzo’s mission was to ensure the US remained committed to the region and at the same time he never gave up in his efforts to persuade China that it should become a partner in the further consolidation of the rules-based order.
Maintaining a strategic balance in the region was an essential part of his long-term vision. We worked together to reinstate the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Japan, Australia, USA and India – the Quad. Our two most consequential modern regional agreements - the CPTPP and the Quad - would not have been achieved without Shinzo Abe.
Shinzo Abe with Malcolm Turnbull walking Sydney’s South Head Heritage Trail in 2017.Credit: DAVID MOIR
By the time Trump was elected in 2016, China was already putting pressure on its neighbours advancing territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, reinforced with the construction of forward operating bases on artificial islands – all in defiance of international law.
At the same time North Korea under its new leader, Kim Jong-un, increased its provocations with nuclear tests, refused to return kidnapped Japanese citizens and fired missiles that flew over Japan all coupled with regular blood-curdling threats of annihilation.
These challenges called for all of Shinzo’s qualities. In Trump, he had to build a relationship of trust with somebody utterly unlike any other leader with whom he had dealt. When the three of us were together I could see that Trump was testing Shinzo, trying to unsteady him with provocations about Japanese history. Shinzo was unflappable, always calm, good-humoured but firm and always coming back to the issue he wanted to pursue.
History hangs heavy on Japan and its leaders. Keenly aware of bitter resentment, especially from its neighbours in China and Korea, Japan has been reluctant to assume a stronger voice in global affairs lest it be seen as returning to old belligerent ways.
It is a complex mix of politics, history and psychology difficult for foreigners to understand. But from my perspective Shinzo Abe was able to increase Japan’s global stature and influence, enhance its military capabilities, and at the same time acknowledge the criminal mistakes of the past with candour and remorse, as he did on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in 2015.
Shinzo’s leadership has been missed since ill-health caused him to retire as prime minister in 2020, but he remained a wise voice in Japanese politics and internationally. We mourn Shinzo Abe today, as does his family and his nation, but in these tense and troubled times over months and years ahead we will miss his wisdom more than ever.